Lisa, the cutoffs for NTSE STAGE 1 examination varies from state to state and from category to category, so in order to tell your probability of selection, you have to specify your state of examination. Also, the cutoffs of many states haven't been declared as yet, so one can predict the chances only looking at previous years trends. So, kindly rewrite the query with the name of your state or you can mention it in a comment and I would surely try to help you.

However, if you want to know the previous years cutoff or this years' predicted cutoffs of various states , then you can visit this link

https://school.careers360.com/articles/ntse-cutoff