No i have answered it on the basis of state quota cutoff for up. You can visit the link given in the answer. 

The cutoff marks for the UP govt. medical college last year were 492 with the rank 24680 in UP rural institute of the medical scienes and research. So you have the choices of the other colleges also where you can apply for the admission in medical or dental courses. The list of the govt. colleges in UP where you can get the admission is given in the link below witht he cutoff marks and rank.

https://medicine.careers360.com/articles/neet-cutoff-up

The link for the cutoff marks has been provided by the admin of the group himself and all are instructed to give the answer based on the previois years cutoff marks...

Now if someone is asking about the probability then every time we answer like this??!!! As you have answered....