Introduction to probability, review of distributions: Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Multinomial, Exponential, Gamma, Gaussian distribution
Preliminaries II
Conditional probability, Conditional expectation and variance, Computations with conditioning, Central limit theorem, Software demonstration of simulating discrete and continuous random variables
DTMC I
Discrete time stochastic processes, Discrete time Markov chains, transition probabilities, Chapman-Kolmogorov equations, classification of states, Software demonstration of the concepts
DTMC II
Limiting probabilities, Connection to Perron Frobenius Theorem, Mean time spent in transient states, Branching processes, Time reversible Markov chains, Applications
Discrete time counting processes
Bernoulli random processes, definitions and alternate synthesis approaches via interarrivals, properties, operating on Bernoulli processes like merging and splitting, Applications to simple discrete-time queues
Continuous time counting processes
Poisson processes, Interarrival and waiting time distributions, merging and splitting operations, order statistics, conditional distribution on arrival times, marked and compound Poisson processes, Applications
CTMC I
Birth and Death processes, Transition probability function.
CTMC II
Kolmogorov’s backward and forward equations, Limiting probabilities, Applications
Renewal
definitions, examples, Limit theorems, renewal reward, Applications to reliability
Applications to Queuing theory
basic definitions of queues and Kendall notation, analysis of M/M/X/X queues
Martingale and Brownian motion
definition, connections to other processes, Hitting times, Gambler’s ruin problem, Brownian motion with drift, Geometric Brownian motion, White noise, Gaussian processes, Stationary and weak stationary processes
Applications
Option pricing, risk neutral pricing, Arbitrage theorem, Black Scholes option pricing formula